DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/28 11:23
Beans, Wheat Higher at Midday
Minneapolis wheat making new highs advancing over $7; most other grain trade
is mixed at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow up 140. The interest
rate products are lower. The dollar index is 35 points lower. Energies are
firmer with crude up 0.40. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs higher and cattle
lower. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $3.40.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday after trading over a penny higher
overnight illustrating pre-report type action. The heat placement in the
extended forecast is getting attention but with moisture and mild temperatures
this week we are keeping the market near the summer lows. Looking to Friday,
the average trade guess for the June USDA Planting Intentions is 89.82 million
acres versus 89.996 in March and 94.004 a 2016. The range of estimates is
89-90.6 million acres. The June 1 Quarterly Grain stocks report is expected to
have corn at 5.16 billion bushels versus 4.711 billion a year ago. The weekly
ethanol report showed production 2.53% higher and stocks 1.98% lower with
gasoline demand down 2.83%, leaving ethanol futures unchanged at midday. July
corn futures have support at the new low printed Friday at $3.56 with
resistance at the $3.67 10-day moving average.
Soybean trade is 3 cents higher at midday, which has us in the upper half of
a 7 cent trading range. Meal is $1 higher and oil is 5 points lower. The weak
dollar, moving to new lows for the move, has been supporting commodities. The
heat in the extended forecast is also limiting downside this week after the
pressure last week. Looking to Friday, the USDA June Planting Intentions
expectations are limiting upside with the average trade guess at 89.95 million
acres versus 89.5 million on the March report and up from 83.4 million a year
ago. This would be the first year soybean acreage surpasses corn and frankly
the first year they have been close to each other. The June 1 stocks are
expected to be at 981 million bushels versus 872 a year ago. July beans have
major support at the $9.00 14-month low made last week, with the 10-day at
$9.20 first resistance.
Wheat trade is 2 to 3 cents higher on Chicago and Kansas City; Minneapolis
wheat is leading again with trade up over 15 cents and above $7 at midday.
Minneapolis has been up 30 cents. The poor spring wheat crop and short covering
appears to promise us an active Minneapolis market the rest of the week. The
average trade guess for the all wheat planted number on Friday is at 46.045
million acres versus 46.059 on the March report. The June 1 Quarterly Wheat
stocks are expected to be at 1.154 billion versus 976 billion a year ago. The
spring wheat acreage estimate is at 11.234 versus 11.308 on the March report.
Winter wheat harvest should continue to progress this week with isolated storm
delays and mixed yields, with the weaker dollar helping competitiveness on the
export market coming forward. Europe conditions will continue to be watching
with estimates in retreat. On the July Kansas City contract support is the
100-day at $4.52 with resistance the 10-day at $4.65.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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